Archive

Elderson - “Know thyself” – avoiding policy mistakes in light of the prevailing climate science

Keynote speech by Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, at the Delphi Economic Forum IX

In his keynote speech, Frank Elderson discusses the use of evidence from climate and nature science to inform the actions of public authorities, including central banks and supervisors. He highlights the urgency of addressing climate risks and the need for decisive action to prevent catastrophic levels of climate hazards. The speech emphasizes the economic and structural challenges associated with failing to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement, including the need to upgrade and adapt existing capital stock. Elderson also emphasizes the importance of a sound banking system and well-developed capital markets to mitigate financial bottlenecks and ensure proper pricing of climate-related risks. He concludes by stressing the potential impact of climate risks on monetary policy transmission and the need for policymakers to prepare for future risks while striving towards the goals of the Paris Agreement.


Positivity: 70
Uncertainty: 80

Bowman - Risks and Uncertainty in Monetary Policy: Current and Past Considerations

In Michelle Bowman's speech, she discusses the challenges faced by monetary policymakers in accounting for uncertainties and risks when setting monetary policy. She emphasizes the importance of a forward-looking approach and the need for transparent communications. Bowman reviews the significant developments in the U.S. economy and monetary policy, particularly related to the post-financial crisis economy, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the rebound of inflation. She highlights the revisions in the Federal Reserve's statement on longer-run goals and monetary policy strategy and the use of various tools, such as asset purchases and forward guidance, to support the economy during the pandemic. Bowman also discusses the separate roles of monetary policy and financial stability, emphasizing the importance of appropriate regulation and supervision in addressing financial stability risks. She concludes with her own views on the near-term economic outlook, risks and uncertainties surrounding inflation, and considerations for future monetary policy decisions.


Positivity score: 70
Uncertainty score: 50

Kugler - Enriching Data and Analysis in Economics with Real Life Experiences

Adriana Kugler discusses the importance of women's representation in the economics profession, emphasizing the practical reasons for greater diversity. She argues that diverse experiences and perspectives can lead to better insights and more relevant economic analysis. Kugler shares her approach to economic research, combining deductive and inductive methods. She provides examples of her own research, including a study on the effects of Hurricane Katrina evacuees on Houston schools and an experiment on the impact of stipends on training program outcomes. Kugler highlights the value of personal experiences in informing research and policymaking. She concludes by urging economists to bring their unique perspectives to economic discussions and become experts in their fields.


Positivity Score: 80
Uncertainty Score: 40

Bowman - Bank Liquidity, Regulation, and the Fed's Role as Lender of Last Resort

In Michelle Bowman's speech, she addresses the role of the Federal Reserve in providing liquidity to the U.S. banking system. She discusses the historical context of the Federal Reserve's authority and its evolution since the 2008 financial crisis. She emphasizes the importance of the Federal Reserve's liquidity tools, particularly the discount window, in supporting the banking system. Bowman also explores the challenges and design problems that need to be addressed to optimize the functioning of these tools, including the potential use of pre-positioning collateral and improving the technology and operational readiness of the discount window. She acknowledges the stigma associated with discount window borrowing and the need to consider the broader framework of bank liquidity, including other sources and requirements. Furthermore, Bowman reflects on the lessons learned from the recent Bank Term Funding Program and the importance of continuous improvement in program design. She concludes by highlighting the need for a comprehensive review of the liquidity framework and the importance of a targeted approach to supervision in preventing banking system stress.


Positivity score: 70
Uncertainty score: 50